Bracing for Government’s Withdrawal from the Economy

When the Federal government begins its withdrawal from the economy, the implications will be large and the ramifications likely painful. We saw it when Cisco’s stock plunged 16% after reporting earnings partially compressed by a reduction in government contracts. We see it every day as temporary Federal stimulus wanes and takes more and more steam … Read more

As Gross Reiterates His Call for A Top in Bonds, TBT Seems to Bottom

Bloomberg summarized the latest missive from Bill Gross in a piece called “Fed Easing to Signify End of Bull Market, Gross Says.” Gross called an end to the 30-year bull market in bonds thanks to the the Federal Reserve’s planned second round of quantitative easing. I decided to read Gross in his own words, and … Read more

Don’t Blame the Buyers, Blame the Suppliers of Sovereign Debt

According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), its 33 member countries will almost double government borrowing from 2007 to 2011 to the tune of $19 trillion. In the face of this ramp in borrowing (and spending) bond investors are supposed should sit back and calmly continue to absorb all the sovereign requests … Read more

Greenspan Speaks Plainly As He Warns of the Risks for Fiscal Catastrophe

“…the Republicans, I think, have been cutting taxes with borrowed money, and the Democrats have been spending with borrowed money. They agree only on the borrowed money. And the system cannot take that…We are now at a state where, excluding World War II, we are in the worst shape of the relationship between borrowing capacity … Read more

Fleckenstein: “Why would I want to hedge gold?”

Bill Fleckenstein, President of Fleckenstein Capital and one of my favorite money managers, was on CNBC’s Fast Money Wednesday night giving his typical, colorful commentary on gold. I am posting an approximate transcript to his brief interview because it included what I think should be a classic moment in gold commentary. Toward the end of … Read more

Centrotherm Photovoltaics Continues Its Success in China

Centrotherm Photovoltaics is a German provider of technology and equipment for the photovoltaics industry. For example, the company is a developer and seller of “…turnkey production lines for the manufacture of crystalline solar cells, including the full range of engineering and technological process services.” Centrotherm’s business spans the entire photovoltaic supply chain from raw material … Read more

All This Uncertainty is Making Me More Certain

I am far from bullish on the financial markets, but it is getting harder and harder to stay bearish given the accelerating negative buzz about deflation, double-dips, and, most importantly, all the talk about the uncertainty that is supposedly paralyzing the entire country, preventing business owners from operating the engines of American commerce and preventing … Read more

Kyle Bass Reiterates the Case for A Sovereign Debt Default in Japan

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, managing partner at Hayman Investments, earned his claim to fame by predicting the crash in housing prices and the financial crisis that would follow. Now, he has focused his cold stare on the bubbles in sovereign debt in developed economies. The folks at CNBC’s Strategy session interviewed Bass last week … Read more

Stockman Takes Umbrage with 40 Years of Republican Fiscal Policies

If David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, created the political party of “Fiscal Conservatives,” I might have to give serious consideration to signing up. For now, I have to settle for non-partisan organizations like the Peter G. Peterson Foundation who work hard to promote fiscal discipline … Read more