A Case for News Sensitivity and Unreliable Liquidity As Early Warning Signs from Markets

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Central bankers continue to warn financial markets to properly price in risk. On March 13th, Chris Salmon, the Executive Director of Markets at the Bank of England (BoE) continued the … Read more

Why Home Builders Are Off to A Relatively Strong Start In 2015

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 9, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) It is still very early in the new year, but I cannot help notice the relative strength exhibited by iShares Trust – iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and several major … Read more

The National Association of Homebuilders Offers Sober Assessments of Economic and Political Impacts On the Housing Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) issued an important summary of recent economic and political news relevant to housing titled “Eye on the Economy: Slowing Sales.” Here are the key points … Read more

Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets head into a much anticipated Federal Reserve decision that should feature some resolution on the tapering question, I found it interesting to rewind the tape back to the recent … Read more

The Federal Reserve’s Wariness Toward Housing

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The release of the minutes for the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting caused a lot of churn in financial markets, especially in currencies. I read contradicting headlines with one interpreting the … Read more

The Franc’s Weakening Should Continue Against the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Two weeks ago, I wrote “Time To Short The Franc… With The Euro” as a trading call that combined the likely continued strength in the euro (FXE) and the likely continued … Read more

Over the Fiscal Cliff Lies Opportunity Valley: Saic, Inc.

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 25, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In the summer of 2011, I started a series called the “Commodity Crash Playbook” designed to take advantage of the bargains created from what, at that time, seemed to be a … Read more

Peering Over the Fiscal Cliff, the Yen Gets “Cheap”, Australian Dollar “Expensive”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 20th, the Bank of Japan rolled out more stimulus and more accomodative monetary policy as expected: {snip} The Bank of Japan is clearly trying to get more aggressive in … Read more

Black Friday Trade Gets More Bullish Even As Fiscal Cliff Looms

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The rally from oversold conditions in the S&P 500 (SPY) from the November lows has now nearly recovered post-election losses. On the way up, we got to see whether Black Friday … Read more

T2108 Update (November 28, 2012) – Successful (And Dramatic) Retest of the 200-Day Moving Average

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more