T2108 Update (January 9, 2013) – Technical Tensions Build As Extreme Overbought Conditions Persist

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

2013 Forex Outlook: More of the Same for the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Most of the clues required for the British pound’s direction for 2013 are contained in the Bank of England’s last Inflation Report back on November 14, 2012. The British pound enjoyed … Read more

Peering Over the Fiscal Cliff, the Yen Gets “Cheap”, Australian Dollar “Expensive”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 20th, the Bank of Japan rolled out more stimulus and more accomodative monetary policy as expected: {snip} The Bank of Japan is clearly trying to get more aggressive in … Read more

T2108 Update (January 2, 2013) – Like 2012, 2013 Begins Overbought But Trading Implications Are More Complex This Time

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

U.S. Dollar Reaches For Escape Velocity Against the Japanese Yen

Last week, I expected that heightened Fiscal Cliff fears would lead to renewed interest in buying the Japanese yen (see “Peering Over The Fiscal Cliff, The Yen Gets ‘Cheap’, Australian Dollar ‘Expensive’“). That interest turned out to be VERY temporary. As post-Christmas trading opened, the U.S. dollar surged yet again against the yen (FXY). It … Read more

Time to Pare Back Bullish Positions In the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, I noted that as long as the Australian dollar (FXA) maintained its stubborn strength, it made sense to play the currency long versus the weakening Japanese yen … Read more

Cash Is Trash When Denoted In Francs

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Monday, November 3, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) will soon charge negative interest rates on cash balances denoted in Swiss francs (FXF). Francs are increasingly becoming trash … Read more

Euro Positioned to Bounce Ahead of Fed and Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decisions

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 12, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week I discussed trading in the Swiss franc (FXF) in the wake of Credit Suisse’s implementation of negative interest rates for large cash balances denoted in Swiss Francs (see “Cash … Read more

Chart Review: Apple Resistance; Priceline.com and Siemens Breakout

Apple (AAPL) In one month, Apple (AAPL) has gone absolutely nowhere while remaining under critical resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA). In between, AAPL printed an impressive hammer which created a bottom in the stock right above the $500 level. The hammer pattern printed what now looks like a classic washout day of selling … Read more

U.S. Dollar Return to QE3 Price Sets Up A Breakout for Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost three months have passed since the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing. In that time, a Presidential election and now audible negotiations over the Fiscal Cliff have … Read more