Above the 40 (March 2, 2018) – Trump Pulls the Trade War Tripwire

AT40 = 27.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary President Trump has been talking about taking unilateral trade actions since he was campaigning in 2016. The rhetoric heated up … Read more

Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year? Not Even Close

New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had his say with Congress this week and some of the conventional financial media and pundits have been shrill with speculation about the potential for four rate hikes in 2018 as a result of Powell’s word choices and tone. This number of hikes is reportedly one more hike than … Read more

Above the 40 (February 28) – An S&P 500 Breakdown Helps Drag Market to Edge of Oversold

AT40 = 25.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.9% Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary As I feared was likely, the S&P 500 (SPY) wasted no time in breaking its 50-day moving average (DMA) support. … Read more

Above the 40 (February 27, 2018) – The Bulls’ Steamroller Abruptly Runs Out of Gas

AT40 = 31.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.6 (17.7% gain) Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary During the thick of the sell-off earlier this month, I stated with tongue-in-cheek that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome … Read more

Above the 40 (February 21, 2018) – Exhausted Buyers Fail to Break Through the S&P 500’s Cloud

AT40 = 28.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Commentary Buyers are starting to look exhausted. Based on the topsy-turvy reaction to the minutes from the last meeting … Read more