Time For A Little Harvesting Even As Tailwinds Strengthen For The British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 14, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} These quotes came from Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England (BoE), in response to questions during the Q&A period of the November Inflation Report. I believe Carney reminded … Read more

Trump Change: The U.S. Dollar Swings Wildly from Election Despair to Elation

In my last post, I wrote about the small solace I took in profits on my short AUD/JPY position as the Japanese yen (FXY) surged in response to a looming victory by Donald Trump for the U.S. Presidency. At the time, I closed out the position assuming that currency bearishness was over-extended by quick-trigger negative … Read more

T2108 Update (November 8, 2016) – A Bracketed S&P 500 Rally Slams Into the U.S. Presidential Election

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

OPEC’s Latest Stumbles Create the Next Opportunity for an Oil-Driven Pairs Trade

In a previous post on the stock market, I noted how commodity-related plays were apparently benefiting from a sagging U.S. dollar index (DXY0). I failed to note that oil was (and is) a glaring exception. Oil futures fell around 9% for the week. This plunge was enough to completely reverse last month’s rally for United … Read more

T2108 Update (November 3, 2016) – Preparing for Oversold Trading As Bearish Signals Converge

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 25, 2016) – The S&P 500 Meanders Into Earnings Season

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Traders Return to the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an “ominous sentiment shift” in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions … Read more

The Pound Receives Some Relief As the UK PM Faces Brexit Constraints

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) It looks like UK Prime Minister Theresa May will not be able to proceed with Brexit plans, hard or not, unchecked by other powers in the UK. The UK Parliament demanded … Read more