ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more
The Price Action Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is on more media radars after breaking out above $10,000 last week. Last month, Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in place since the last big run-up peaked in June, 2019. The $10K breakout ran into a wall from resistance formed by the high when Bitcoin suddenly spiked straight up … Read more
At the end of last month I made the following claim about the euro in reference to EUR/USD: “The slide will likely take some time, but I fully expect EUR/USD to retest its low around 1.089 from September of last year. The current rebound looks like a technical break from many months of decline. At … Read more
For months, I have tried to stay bullish on the Canadian dollar (FXC), particularly against the U.S. dollar (USD/CAD). Bit by bit, the Bank of Canada has undermined my bullish narratives. The tune from the Bank of Canada (BoC) notably changed in the November report on monetary policy, and last month’s report on monetary policy … Read more
AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more
“…do we need eight pressers per year, because a lot of analysts think, when you see the previews of the analysts, it is often no change, no change, no change for this year. Could be different in the future, but would it be something maybe the strategy will discuss on the frequency of the monetary … Read more
AT40 = 45.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I am so accustomed to the stock market’s resilience that I am already looking ahead to the rebound scenarios from … Read more
AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more
The U.S. Senate approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement on Thursday, January 16th. That timing may mark a major milestone and turning point for the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar (USD/MXN). The following day, USD/MXN sliced through the low of 2019 and hit a 17-month low. I have been bullish on the Mexican … Read more
Last week’s geo-political drama had all the makings of an escalation to all-out war. A country incensed about the assassination of its top general lobbed missiles at airbases its enemy occupies in a neighboring country. Everyone braced for the typical response of attacking the sites that lobbed the missiles. With its borders breached by the … Read more