The Federal Reserve’s Latest Policy Decision Frustrates Bears and Central Banks Alike

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “There is no mechanical formula.” This is the response Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave to a reporter who tried to press her on the rules and timing for the first … Read more

A One-Chart Reminder Of the Market’s Obsession With Fed Tapering and Tightening

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last Thursday (December 12, 2013), U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 368,000. This number was above “expectations” and above the on-going declining trend in the 4-week moving average. {snip} Source: … Read more

Some Quick Implications As the U.S. Dollar Turns the Corner On Taper Fears Part Two

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The next statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve comes on December 18th. With taper expectations on the rise again thanks to the 204,000 jobs added in October, it … Read more

The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown…or Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar (UUP) sold off steadily going into Wednesday’s (October 30, 2013) statement from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. It has been a slow yet relatively steady grind lower … Read more

Demographics and Labor Flows Drive the Implications of the Labor Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 22, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In his opening statement for his press conference following the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Ben Bernanke once again called out the influence of lower participation rates on unemployment… … Read more