ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Ever since I speculated that the market had finally reached a (near-term) top in January, I have been tracking signals confirming this top. Every once in a while, I stumble upon a significant stock that flashes a contrary sign and gives me pause. Cummins, Inc. (CMI) is a company with such a stock. Cummins, Inc. … Read more
The first rate pain continues with First Solar (FSLR). At the time of posting, First Solar has dropped over 4% (to $108) in after hours trading upon the release of its 2009 annual report. No doubt the seventeen pages describing risk factors contributed to the latest reason to sell First Solar shares. These morbid details … Read more
Solar investors and traders know the post-earnings routine all too well by now: 1) solar company releases earnings, 2) after hours trading initially sends the stock up on stellar headline results for the last quarter, 3) and then trading sends the stock into negative territory once guidance rolls across the tape or during the conference … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings tonight, and short interest is at a record high. Data from nasdaq.com. Latest update January 29, 2010 This short interest represents about 36% of FSLR’s float. Toss in negative news flow and for the first time in a long time, negativity is running extremely high going into FSLR’s earnings. As … Read more
At the end of December, I suggested that the post-earnings trading in U.S. Steel (X) and Nucor (NUE) would be explosive based upon stealth rallies from the November lows that occurred despite a strong accumulation in puts and shorts on those stocks. On Tuesday, both steel companies delivered disappointing earnings that included cautions regarding continued … Read more
In my last piece on Google (GOOG), I neglected to post an update to my chart on the company’s revenue metrics using the 2009 fourth quarter earnings report. The chart below shows that revenue per employee has now returned to the highs at the beginning of GOOG’s existence as a public company. Assuming that net … Read more
Google (GOOG) fourth quarter earnings last night were largely as expected: “Google reported revenues of $6.67 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, an increase of 17% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008…GAAP EPS in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $6.13…compared to $1.21 in the fourth quarter of 2008…Non-GAAP EPS in the … Read more
Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more
The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October’s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night’s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior … Read more
Google (GOOG) is now down 5% for the year, under-performing the NASDAQ which is essentially flat for 2010. The sudden surge in volume in GOOG suggests that a large group of traders and investors are selling on the news of the Nexus One release. This volume represents the most active trading in GOOG since its … Read more