ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The annual Jackson Hole confab of central bankers starts this coming Thursday. Almost like technical poetry, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are back to the highs directly preceding Jackson Hole 2022. Depending on your perspective, this Jackson Hole redux either represents a bullish confirmation of the market’s resilience after 18 months … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncement on monetary policy was supposed to provide the drama of the week. However, the stock market yawned and resumed the buying of the summer of love at the open of trading the next day. Enter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide the real drama. The fireworks … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Feds delivered on Sunday as Janet Yellen promised. The FDIC, the Treasury, and the Federal Reserve joined forces to offer emergency financial backing and reassurances for the banking system, a kind of “Project Calm” to project calm. The Federal Reserve even came up with a new acronym that looks like a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
My idea for a trade on the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) report seemed like a great idea last month. Up to that point, the market experienced sharp swings based on the directional gap between the actual inflation readings and expected inflation. I used the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” to generate an approximate trading model. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: What was resistance for over two months is slowly becoming support for the stock market. The bullish trading action of the last week created an important breakout that confirmed the bottoming action from the previous week’s bullish engulfing pattern. While the stock market may continue to chase its tail before fighting its … Read more
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) joined a slowly growing list of companies announcing layoffs. In a heartfelt blog post, CEO Glenn Kelman explained “I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: With the prospects of a bottom for this bear market, I am getting a little more interested in individual stock narratives. The bear market rubble is extensive. The gems are dispersed across a wide area. These stock charts provide one framework for sifting through the trash and the opportunity. {note: in this … Read more