How To Estimate Intraday Moves For The S&P 500 Using The Australian Dollar

In numerous posts I have described the intriguingly consistent and profitable relationship between the Australian dollar (FXA) and the S&P 500 (for example, see “A Hypothesis for the Connection Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500“). In recent weeks, I have also noticed periodic patterns in the way the Australian dollar trades versus the … Read more

The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Provides Some Relief for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 4, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Sunday, September 2, the Australian dollar (FXA) drifted back to flatline for the year against the U.S. dollar. This move prompted me to tweet the following: “$AUDUSD close to flat … Read more

T2108 Update (September 6, 2012) – Bearish Undertones Brushed Away In A Single Swipe

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

RBA Identifies Australian Dollar’s Support from Foreign Demand for Bonds

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its last monetary policy decision during which it seemed to declare a soft landing for China. I took particular interest in … Read more