ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The reaction to the Q1 2022 earnings report from KB Home (KBH) symbolizes the skepticism that enshrouds housing-related stocks when the economic cycle turns against them. KBH management was almost as bullish as can be during the earnings conference call. Yet, sellers took KBH down the next day by 4.6%. Last week, KBH tested its … Read more
During the Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, a friend and I were convinced that the Federal Reserve’s extraordinary monetary measures would eventually create outsized inflationary pressures. We came up with a blog called “Inflation Watch” as a way to educate each other on price dynamics and to alert anyone else interested. The subsequent economic expansion came … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Throw out all the gradual scenarios for a potential climax. The stock market carved out a quick crest that puts the current rally at risk. Out-performance from small-cap stocks and late saves for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ barely averted a technical setup for a bearish reversal. The stock market goes … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Forget recession fears. Forget an aggressively hawkish Fed. Forget the stock chart holdouts. Bullish belief delivered another powerful confirmation of what has become an exceptionally strong bounce from March’s nervous test of the last oversold point. The rally launched from the March lows and barely rested or paused. The rally has been … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary An aggressively hawkish Federal Reserve has changed the game for the housing market. After falling behind the curve and failing to start the rate hike cycle last year, America’s central bank is now desperately scrambling to catch up without causing a recession. The housing market is ground zero for the … Read more