One Chart That Rings An Alarm For Future Chinese Consumption

“…emerging markets experienced a more recent run-up in indebtedness, which started around the time of the crisis, and is still continuing. In other words, their deleveraging has not even begun. This has the potential to create persistent spending disappointments, if monetary policy is unable to stimulate other spending sufficiently.” – “Debt, Demographics and the Distribution … Read more

Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan’s Newly Negative Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, January 27th, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip} When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up … Read more

The S&P 500’s Latest Breakdown Echoes the Warning Signal From the August Angst

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) For a brief moment on January 15, 2016, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked ready to extend the sell-off that ended with the August Angst of 2015. At 1858, the index was … Read more

An Upbeat Reserve Bank of Australia Stays Downbeat On Interest Rates

In its February decision on interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a surprisingly upbeat and rosy assessment of economic conditions in Australia. Outside of mining, I daresay economic conditions look particularly promising: “In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 even … Read more

KB Home Stinks the Neighborhood Again, But I Am Holding My Nose This Time

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) A year ago, KB Home (KBH) reported Q4 2014 earnings that greatly disappointed financial markets. The stock lost 16% in the immediate aftermath. The stock took 5 months to recover only … Read more