ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
For many of us, investing over the last 10 years has been much more difficult and a lot less fun than it was in the 90s. In the 90s, it was easy to accept the religion of “buy and hold”, keep the faith that assets are pre-ordained to increase in value, and drown oneself in … Read more
If David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, created the political party of “Fiscal Conservatives,” I might have to give serious consideration to signing up. For now, I have to settle for non-partisan organizations like the Peter G. Peterson Foundation who work hard to promote fiscal discipline … Read more
On Tuesday, Research In Motion’s (RIMM’s) stock plunged over 4% on notable volume. It appeared that a 4-month downtrend was ready to resume. That evening, RIMM announced a mysterious event, presumably with AT&T, for the following Tuesday. Always quick to buy a rumor, the market responded to the hype by sending RIMM to a rapid … Read more
Earlier, I noted that Intel’s stock looked ominous given so many stocks were making bullish post-earnings reversals. On Friday, Intel (INTC) finally gave up the rest of its impressive post-earnings gains. On a day in which the market staged a relatively impressive comeback from initial selling (the NASDAQ closed marginally UP), INTC closed on its … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. Unlike the last two rounds, I have no strong feelings about the potential upward or downward moves this time around. I went neutral on FSLR after closing out positions on the great post-earnings pop in April, and I have not done much else since then with the stock … Read more
I decided to take the plunge and read “How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End” by economists Alan Binder (Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics, Princeton University) and Mark Zandi (Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics). Binder and Zandi conclude that the various stimulus programs and creative use of montary policy over the last … Read more
July will deliver an up month for Goldman Sachs (GS) for the first time since March and only the third time since it peaked nine months ago. GS is up 12% for the month of July, handily beating the 7% gain for the S&P 500 and and the 6% gain for XLF, the SPDRs Select … Read more
The British pound’s bounce from May’s 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar has surpassed all my expectations. The currency has stumbled at key resistance points as expected, but the trend upward has been persistent and undeniable. The pound has followed a steep channel straight up. The pound is now sitting right at its 200-day moving … Read more
Momentum continues to swing swiftly in favor of the bulls. The stock market is now pushing deep into overbought territory just three weeks after it was fashionable again to talk about a double dip recession. Last week, the S&P 500 broke a downtrend I assumed would hold for at least a few more weeks. It … Read more
Graphs depicting economic data can convey different meaning to different people. For example, several models exist to explain economic growth and the variables important for forecasting economic performance. My most recent experience with this dynamic occurred after reading John Maudlin’s latest treatise on the deflationary threat facing the global economy (free subscription required). I remain … Read more