ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Nassim Taleb, famous author of “Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan”, was so distressed by the Federal Reserve’s roll-out of quantitative easing part 2 that he ended his media black-out and interviewed with Erik Schatzker on Bloomberg Television a few days ago. Anyone familiar with Taleb will not find any new themes or critiques … Read more
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
For a few months, I have intended to write an update on lithium ion battery company Ener1, Inc. (HEV) since I took exception with an analyst’s dismissal of the company in late July of this year. The stock remained firm since then, and I was thinking it was a bullish sign. HEV reported earnings last … Read more
Another week, another extension of a historic overbought period in the S&P 500. Based on the closing performance of the stock market’s major indices, you probably would not guess that one of the stock market’s largest companies (Cisco) lost 16% on the day. If there was a day for the market to have an excuse … Read more
The shorts in Cisco (CSCO) had it right after all…even if they were a bit early. Short interest in CSCO surged in late August close to 52-week highs. When I noticed this in mid-September, I made a somewhat complicated case for using this as a contrarian signal to go long the stock. CSCO trickled upward … Read more
China leads charge against U.S. injection of hot money – The Globe and Mail Facing a speculative wave of foreign investment, China and other emerging market economies are clamping down on the so-called hot money rippling through their economies in the wake of the United States’ latest move to stimulate growth and employment. (tags: Federal_Reserve … Read more
A surprise increase in margin requirements after the close of business November 10th apparently contributed to the climactic end to silver’s parabolic move on Tuesday. This also explains why gold’s fade was not nearly as bad a silver’s. Details are available in the following references in order of publication: CNBC (Tues): “CME Taps the Brakes … Read more
I was about a month premature and about 19% in missed gains when I flagged the potential start of a parabolic move in silver. Or perhaps my definition of a parabolic move should have been more expansive. Either way, silver’s behavior over the past four trading days definitely has taken on the tipsy look of … Read more
German Finance Minister attacks Fed move again : report | Reuters German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble renewed his criticism of the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to buy $600 billion worth of government bonds, saying it undermined U.S. credibility and created uncertainty, according to a German magazine. (tags: monetary_policy Germany Federal_Reserve quantiative_easing)
Ahead of last week’s big events, I suggested that the market was setting up for a surprise reaction. So far, the biggest surprise has been the timing of the market’s big rally reaction after the election and the Federal Reserve’s announcement of quantitative easing and before the unemployment report. But that is not the surprise … Read more