The Tariff Tainted Oversold Period Finally Ends! – The Market Breadth

the tariff tainted oversold period finally ends

Stock Market Commentary Big news: the oversold period is officially OVER. This tariff tainted oversold period was lasted a historical 12 trading days. Several catalysts emerged during and after market hours to support a narrative of a sustained bottom, including: While the length of the oversold period confirms bear market trading, these developments suggest the … Read more

NVDA and the Fed Lock In Overhead Resistance As Gold Soars – The Market Breadth

NVDA and the Fed Lock In Overhead Resistance As Gold Soars

Stock Market Commentary Overhead resistance once prevailed over expanding market breadth, particularly over the past two trading sessions. The dominant headline was Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning about the difficult scenario facing the Fed due to tariffs. I interpreted his message as an intention to avoid responding as long as possible. For a market pricing … Read more

The Bank of Japan’s Other Currency Battle: The Technicals

The Bank of Japan’s Other Currency Battle - The Technicals (Credit: Bank of Japan)

When I wrote about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) currency trap, the presumed intervention looked ineffective on balance. However, it appears the Bank of Japan has a multi-phased plan. Last week’s presumed intervention generated a fresh phase of weakness for USD/JPY (strength for the Japanese yen and Invesco CurrencyShares® Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY)). That … Read more

The Bank of Japan Finds Itself In A Currency Trap

currency trap (Credit: HelveticaFanatic at https://www.flickr.com/photos/27469320@N04/2657871668)

The year 2024 may be seen as the time the Bank of Japan’s “free lunch” came to an end. For decades, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ran a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) that even descended into negative rates in 2016. The BoJ eased and eased monetary policy (aka printed and printed) to buy Japanese … Read more

Four Fed Rate Hikes This Year? Not Even Close

New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had his say with Congress this week and some of the conventional financial media and pundits have been shrill with speculation about the potential for four rate hikes in 2018 as a result of Powell’s word choices and tone. This number of hikes is reportedly one more hike than … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Watch the Japanese Yen Fall to A New Edge

A month ago, I described the Japanese yen (FXY) as a currency on edge given a sharp and abrupt response to a feared tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). So far, no tightening cycle has launched, but the yen has steadily strengthened over the last month. For example, USD/JPY broke down below support … Read more

Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge

I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It’s time to pay closer attention. As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity. The yields of these bonds ticked up … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more

Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief – ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue

It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). The most significant move for the U.S. dollar was against the ever-weakening Japanese yen (FXY). USD/JPY broke out and stayed above resistance at its uptrending 200-day moving average … Read more

T2108 Update (January 20, 2017) – Looking Past the S&P 500’s Post-Inauguration Yawn

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more