Gold and Silver Bid for A Bottom In Wake of September Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 5th, I noted how SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both completed post-Brexit roundtrips as rumors of a eurozone tapering of QE triggered a fresh wave … Read more

T2108 Update (September 30, 2016) – Churn: A Lot of September Noise for the S&P 500 and No Bite

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Market’s Not Buying A September Hike But Gold Is Still Topping

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 28, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Going into the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, various “Fed heads” were interviewed about the prospects for the next rate hike. The chorus in the days and weeks before Jackson Hole … Read more

T2108 Update (September 26, 2016) – The S&P 500’s Post-Fed Celebration Comes to a Pre-Debate End

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 21, 2016) – Volatility Plunges As the Stock Market Eagerly Celebrates Fed Tentativeness

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 16, 2016) – For the Week, NASDAQ and U.S. Dollar Leave S&P 500 Behind

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 9, 2016) – FedSpeak Crashes the Stock Market’s Complacency Party – For Now

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Fresh Sympathy for Gold and Silver

The reaction caught me completely off-guard. On September 6th, the USD ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services Composite for August came in at 51.3, well below “expectations” of 54.9 and the lowest reading since February, 2010. The reaction was swift in financial markets. The 30-day Fed Fund futures pushed out the next rate hike from December, 2016 (54.2%) to … Read more

T2108 Update (August 26, 2016) – Bracing Time: Widening Bearish Divergence As Volatility Finds Support

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Unhinges from Fed Rate Expectations

To-date, I have been using the 30-Day Fed fund futures as a valuable tool for determining likely (short-term) trading direction for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). However, since the last Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy on July 27, 2016, these futures have exhibited a lot of volatility and thus a lot of noise (assuming … Read more