ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the coming week (July 31). The odds for at least another 50 basis points by next January are around 61.9% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Yet, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) has regained new life. After breaking critical support … Read more
AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more
AT40 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 13.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Good news is bad news….oops, nevermind The search for … Read more
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more
AT40 = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st overbought day)AT200 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 17.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It was just a week ago when the stock market surged to overbought levels in a bullish move. AT40 … Read more
AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more
AT40 = 35.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The bears took back complete control of the market. Friday, they sent up the warning signal with the screeching of … Read more
AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market is not quite out the (short-term) woods yet. Last Wednesday I pointed out why the latest bearish divergence forced … Read more
AT40 = 57.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I discussed the early signs of a potential run-up driven by the “fear of missing … Read more