Cash Is Trash When Denoted In Francs

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Monday, November 3, Bloomberg reported that Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) will soon charge negative interest rates on cash balances denoted in Swiss francs (FXF). Francs are increasingly becoming trash … Read more

Euro Positioned to Bounce Ahead of Fed and Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decisions

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 12, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week I discussed trading in the Swiss franc (FXF) in the wake of Credit Suisse’s implementation of negative interest rates for large cash balances denoted in Swiss Francs (see “Cash … Read more

Swiss National Bank Strikes A Dour Note As Franc Remains Over-Valued

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) struck a very dour note in its latest statement on monetary policy. Blaming in part the continued over-valuation of the Swiss Franc (FXF) – “the Swiss … Read more

The Swiss Franc Loosens Up – Is It Singing for the Euro?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …something happened September 5th that finally had me rethinking my rediscovered, extended bearishness on the euro. The Swiss franc (FXF) suddenly came to life against the euro today, AND, most … Read more

A Hypothesis for the Connection Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) A reader recently asked the following questions in response to my last piece on the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 (“A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls … Read more

Swiss Franc Refuses To Confirm Fresh Euro-Optimism

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, June 28th, Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine repeated a claim made consistently by the SNB: at 1.20 the Swiss franc is overvalued relative to the euro. … Read more

It Is Not Over Until the Fat Franc Flies?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) As global financial markets seem set to rally in a reflex “risk on” reaction to the bailout of Spain’s banks, one small corner of the financial universe remains notably somber: the … Read more

Nassim Taleb Likes Euros And You Should Too

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In November, 2010, Nassim Taleb (Mr. Black Swan) broke a long-standing media blackout to talk on CNBC about his distress over quantitative easing Part two (QE2). At the time, Taleb concluded … Read more

Chart Review: Australian Dollar Hitting Critical Junctures

I moderated my bullishness on the Australian dollar in early December because Australia’s terms of trade have likely peaked for now and the Reserve Bank of Australia had lowered rates twice. Last week, I recharged my bullishness on the Australian dollar after the Federal Reserve extended its dovish monetary policy. The Australian dollar experienced a … Read more

How to Trade “Euro Fatigue”

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems that the U.S. market has grown weary of worrying about the euro. The euro has lost 4.5% versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD)(FXE) since December 9, 2011 while the S&P … Read more