ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
After reading the February 6th Address to the National Press Club of Australia by Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), I am not so sure the market “got it right.” The following statement alone was used to suggest that the RBA might cut rates in the near future: “Looking forward, there … Read more
It has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets. Today, I … Read more
In recent weeks, I have seen calls for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates. It's important to remember when the RBA moves to cut interest rates, there will probably be two (or more) 25bp moves. As my mate Saul Eslake once noted, interest rate changes are like cockroaches, when you get … Read more
Iron ore may have reached a new inflection point with a price rally coming to a halt in January and some related stocks consolidating near multi-year highs. When I last made an iron ore trade in September, 2017, I was responding to a surprise projection from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that suggested a … Read more
In mid-July, the Australian dollar (FXA) surged higher after a hawkish interpretation of the RBA minutes. Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), tried to walk the market off its enthusiasm. The pause was temporary. By the early September RBA meeting, AUD/USD hit a 2+ year high, albeit partially because of … Read more