ConocoPhillips: A Cautionary Tale from the Oil Patch

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced Q4 and full year 2015 financial results on the morning of February 4, 2016. The news included a capitulation to the on-going deterioration of business conditions in the oil patch: COP slashed its dividend by two-thirds: “ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today announced it is taking actions to maintain its strong balance sheet in … Read more

T2108 Update (February 3, 2016) – The Waterfall and the Whale: An Oversold Near Miss

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Bullard Helps Push Out the Next Rate Hike Further Into the Year

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context. Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices … Read more

T2108 Update (January 26, 2016) – Rally or Regress: A Fed-Inspired Binary Trade

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

(Vainly) In Search of the Correlation Between Oil and the S&P 500

We hear the relationship claimed so casually and so frequently, we probably no longer give it a second thought. For example, on December 30th, the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7%. Searching for an explanation, CNBC ran the all-too familiar headline “Dow closes down triple digits as oil slide weighs.” Oil lost 3.3% on the day … Read more