T2108 Update (November 13, 2014) – A Coiled Spring Or A Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 4, 2014) – Close Calls And A Pause In the Action

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Oil Has Been A Poor Leading Indicator for (Recent) Recessions

Every time oil drops these days, I notice hand-wringing about whether the fall indicates a recession is somewhere close on the horizon. There is an intuitive appeal to this assumption. Oil is still an engine of economic activity, so declining prices must indicate falling demand. What seems to be “different” this time is a true … Read more

An Unusual View of Timing Panic (Regarding Oil Prices)

This is a “quick hit” post – too long for a tweet, but not a complete blog post either. Maybe I will call these quickits. Anyway, I caught a snippet on CNBC this morning discussing the plunge in oil prices. The on-air personality recounted a conversation she had with an oil analyst. The oil analyst … Read more

T2108 Update (July 10, 2014) – Monitoring Action More Than News As the S&P 500 Survives Another Close Call

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Dollar’s Tumble Accompanies A Host of Critical Currency and Commodity Trades

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thanks largely to the surging euro, the U.S. dollar index (UUP) took one of its nastiest one-day tumbles since last October, falling 1.3%. I believe this drop all but confirms staunch … Read more

Opportunities From the Crash In Natural Gas

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last year I wrote a two-part series leveraging the work of Jeremy Grantham to develop a strategy for profiting from a crash in commodity prices (see “Profiting from Physical Assets in … Read more

The Federal Reserve C(Sh)ould Become a Target of the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group

(The following news release is satire and reflects my own cynical interpretation of recent news events. But as they say, there is always some truth in humor.) On Thursday, Attorney General Eric Holder introduced the country to the Oil and Gas Price Fraud Working Group to “…focus specifically on fraud in the energy markets” by … Read more