ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary I asked in my last Housing Market Review whether the housing downturn could already be coming to a swift end. The stocks of home builders delivered that message and more and more earnings reports from home builders are apparently delivering messages of a sharp recovery. A widening divergence between existing … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The housing market has become a lot more dynamic than usual, so over the past few months I have written more pieces beyond the monthly housing market review. The current economic crisis coming from the coronavirus pandemic has increased my frequency of coverage. The most telling moments came when I wrote to … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The short-term outlook for the housing market is clouded by the current global turmoil generated by the coronavirus. The housing data discussed below were all collected before the virus came to the forefront of the minds of Americans. While demand for housing in the U.S. should remain strong (and certainly times like … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary {Note a rough draft of this post was inadvertently posted on January 20, 2020} When I wrote the Housing Market Review for December, I described a “precarious” divergence between the performance of the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) and the S&P 500 (SPY). In late December, dour commentary from JP Morgan (JPM) about … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary When I wrote the Housing Market Review for November, the stocks of home builders were on the edge of conquering their moment of truth. The iShares US Home Construction (ITB) soon rolled over and confirmed a breakdown below support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). ITB is now in a precarious position where … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I finally conceded to a sustained rally in the stocks of home builders. I noted how this stubborn rally moved counter to unimpressive data. In September, several data points finally came together to support the strong sentiment in financial markets. Low interest rates dominate the story … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the last Housing Market Review, I discussed my slow and reluctant acceptance of a stock market that was effectively front-running the seasonally strong period for the stocks of home builders (starting in October/November). I also showed the near consistent dichotomy between builders excelling at selling lower-priced homes to buyers trying to … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary After writing the last Housing Market Review, I was convinced a triple top had appeared in the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB). The May sell-off in the stock market pushed ITB into a breakdown below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Immediately after that post, ITB rebounded right through its 50DMA and … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the January Housing Market Review, I described a pause in the bad housing data long enough to allow the stocks of home builders to rally sharply with the stock market. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was testing resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA); that moment turned out to … Read more
Perhaps it is the pressure of having member companies whose stock trade on public markets. Perhaps it is a coincidental divide in politics. Whatever the explanation, the split in opinion on the impact of Republican tax reform on the housing market became even more stark this week as The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) … Read more