ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary I turned bearish on the stock market over two weeks ago. Last week began with confirmation as sellers followed through on a fade from a brief rally. Mid-week, the downward momentum came to a screeching halt as buyers took over most of the trading action. I pointed out the key signs suggesting … Read more
August through October are the most dangerous months of the year for the S&P 500 (SPY). The historical drawdowns create a well-known pattern of trading that Jim Cramer of CNBC has referenced several times for at least a month. While this year’s August failed to fulfill its destiny, September delivered on its promises with heavy … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week opened with a gap down amid hand-wringing about the potential for contagion from debt problems in China’s property market. However, the week ended like nothing happened. The major indices even managed marginal gains after the dust settled. As is so often the case, the Federal Reserve, under the comforting words … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In my previous post I looked ahead to the Fed meeting on Wednesday as a main wildcard facing down the stock market’s most predictable trading pattern. Instead, heavy headlines about a looming financial crisis in China ground the gears of the stock market. Sprinkle in some obligatory fear about the dire warnings … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The weight of deteriorating market breadth was undermining the stock market even as on-going rotations kept the indices floating higher. Last week, the tone made one of those periodic, yet still small, shifts. When news broke that Epic Games won a key provision of its lawsuit against Apple and its Apple Store, … Read more
The Follow-Through: Strong Start for Stocks The month of September enjoyed a strong start as last week’s fairy dust from J-Pow continued to work its magic. Short-term market breadth with AT50, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs), also continuing higher while leaving behind the longer-term breadth indicator in AT200, the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Say whatever you want, Jerome (Jay) Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, affectionately known as J-Pow, has become a master orchestrator of the stock market. Other Federal Reserve Board members peppered the airwaves with hawkish talk about tapering and inflation in the days preceding Powell’s address at this year’s Jackson Hole, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Pattern trading uses consistent bets on repeated behaviors in financial markets. Over the course of time, pattern trading delivers profits from the diligent application of rules based on standard, technical setups in stock charts. The persistent uptrends and trading ranges in this pandemic stock market have delivered a surprisingly long stretch of … Read more
Deteriorating market breadth flashed warning signs for the stock market once again. A signal from the currency market is adding weight to the warning: the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY). AUD/JPY represents the divergence dragging on the stock market. AUD/JPY topped out from March to June, a period over which many individual stocks … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7% for just its 4th down day of the 12 trading days of August. The index closed at an all-time high the previous day. The pullback looks like just one more tiny pinprick in the middle of a monster run-up during this pandemic. Yet the ongoing deterioration … Read more