ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
{This analysis was updated on January 1, 2025 with the latest data, more clarity, and some corrections. Please see “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern (2025 Update)“} Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described how a housing recession was reflected in the worsening housing data, including the latest report on U.S. GDP. While new home sales made another surprise bounce in October, the rest of the housing data continued to worsen in the month. However, a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described the dynamics of a housing market trying to wait out this cycle of rising rates. Since then, ever higher mortgage rates continued their relentless and sharp uptrend. Accordingly, the pressures on the housing market simply increased further. The marks of a deepening … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I called the housing slowdown a “reality check.” That reality is settling into all corners of the market. With mortgage rates resuming their surge over the past two months, the go-forward picture has dimmed further for the housing market. It seems likely the housing … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A potential peaking in mortgage rates may be the only good thing to say about today’s housing market. Sales continue to slide, input costs remain high, affordability continues to decline, and builder sentiment sinks lower and lower. The reports from August tell a consistent story of a steepening housing downturn. … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Talk of an imminent recession has almost reached a feverish pitch. Accordingly, it is easy to find fears and expectations for an imminent housing crash. The crash watch is morbid as it relies on desperate home owners falling behind on mortgage payments and/or burdened by sinking equity to exit the … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A month ago, housing-related stocks managed to stabilize despite deteriorating data. Reality caught up in June with a fresh round of selling in the stocks of home builders. A surprising jump in new home sales provide some relief for an otherwise on-going din of negative housing news. The National Association … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Housing starts have remained above pre-pandemic highs while new home sales have spent much of the last year below pre-pandemic highs. In April, new home sales finally dropped back to the early pandemic trough. The South is even at pandemic era lows. The resulting mismatch between starts and sales has … Read more
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) was just about as bearish on the housing market as it allows itself to get. In its latest press release on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), the NAHB declared “…the housing market is now slowing.” The HMI plunged from 77 to 69 in a sign that … Read more