T2108 Update (November 28, 2014) – A Potentially Bearish Retreat from Overbought Conditions As Commodities Swim A Sea Of Red

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Rio Tinto Quickly Gives Up Gains from Morgan Stanley Upgrade

Two weeks ago, I noted Rio Tinto (RIO) as a prime short as a late responder to the on-going collapse in iron ore prices. On Monday (September 22), it broke down. Typically, I close out fortuitous short positions on such swift moves, but I am projecting RIO to go a lot lower over the next … Read more

A Stubbornly Strong Australian Dollar Introduces A Risk Factor into Economic Forecasts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its Resources and Energy quarterly for the June, 2014 quarter containing a notably more cautious tone toward the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of … Read more

A Record Iron Ore Shipment As Prices and the Australian Dollar Plunge

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Port Hedland Port Authority along the northern coast of Western Australia reported on June 10th surprising news on an iron ore shipment: {snip} The Port does not report the value … Read more