ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I used the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) for gold as a relatively reliable indicator for trading sentiment on the precious metal until around 2016. After that year, Google trends for the term “gold” essentially flatlined. When gold went parabolic to start 2022, the GTMC for “gold” failed to trigger. The extremes in search interest … Read more
Bitcoin Uptrend Analysis The trend is a friend for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) again. All three of the major moving averages are pointing upward for Bitcoin. This synchronization of the 20-day moving average (DMA), 50DMA, and the 200DMA supports a buy-the-dip strategy after the big March breakout in the wake of the banking Panic of 2023. Assuming … Read more
I will remember 2022 as the year of rolling crypto crises. One disaster after another undermined confidence in the ecosystem and forced changes in the bullish narratives for crypto. Through it all, the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) stepped up to the test as a technical signal for short-term bottoms in Bitcoin. These crises did … Read more
Checking the Google Trends Momentum Check The Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) continues to perform well as a signal for a bottom in downward price action for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). Even the brutal crypto winter has delivered two more examples of how this indicator works. As a reminder, the GTMC signals a potential bottom when (worldwide) … Read more
Bitcoin Boring Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was pretty boring until this past weekend. After neatly failing at resistance from its 200-day moving average (DMA) in late March, BTC/USD settled back into what was starting to look like an extended trading range. However, the pressures of the bear market and a soaring U.S. dollar (DXY) proved too much … Read more
The Bitcoin bottom from a month ago continues to hold. However, the latest bounce off the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) bottom is dangerously different than the last one and the bottoms prior. Once again, Google search trends for “Bitcoin” is the key signal. Unlike the bottom in May where the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) provided another … Read more
As someone who watched too much of this year’s crypto run-up from the sidelines, I welcome the recent implosions of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD). These top cryptocurrencies are inherently extremely volatile, so sharp and deep corrections are features not bugs for crypto traders. As long as these assets enjoy a broad fan base of … Read more
“…the CBN [ Central Bank of Nigeria ] has no comfort in cryptocurrencies at this time and will continue to do all within its regulatory powers to educate Nigerians to desist from its use and protect our financial system from activities of fraudsters and speculators..” The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), “Response to Regulatory Directive … Read more
My first “test” trade on Ethereum (ETH/USD) succeeded. I took profits on ETH/USD as it faded from $700 and a 2 1/2 year high. I wanted to hold on, but the clincher triggered with Bitcoin (BTC/USD) fading sharply from its latest all-time high. The fade appeared to signal the beginning of the end of this … Read more
Bitcoin Price Failure In late May, a “price failure” in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) sent me to the sidelines. I decided to retreat to wait for a breakout and accumulate a new position on the way up. Two months later the moment arrived. The U.S. dollar (DXY) broke down and Bitcoin broke out. As a result, I … Read more