ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The Q3 2022 U.S. GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis undermined this year’s strident claims that the economy overall is already in recession. Q3 GDP grew 2.6% largely thanks to a 2.8% growth in personal expenditures for services (one more validation of the relatively strong jobs market) and thanks to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week delivered a series of confirmed breakouts that served to uphold bullish belief in the stock market. Even as the overall rally looks to continue, the market’s most troubled corners showed weakness at the end of the week. These holdouts failed to break through important resistance levels. Some of these growth … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I earlier wrote about a forlorn stock market writing a love note to the Federal Reserve. This love note comes in the form of a basket of sell-offs. The selling is so broad and so deep that traders could throw a dart and find descriptive stock charts. The examples below are some … Read more
Stock Market Commentary My bullishness waned with last week’s manic trading action. I called the resulting patterns choppiness toppiness to reflect a biding sense that the market is churning out some kind of lasting top. Still, under the surface of the churn is a fresh divergence. The stock market is full of digital lows and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market indices benefited from a strong 2021. year. However, under the surface, declining market breadth betrayed the bullish narrative for a wide swath of stocks. A disappointing start to the new year for the indices was even worse for those stocks already limping into the end of last year. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A stock market melt-up is in full effect. Investopedia defines a melt-up as “…a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise, rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.” … Read more
The Follow-Through Intro The biggest follow-through trades from “Key Stock Sectors Missed A Breakout In Market Breadth – Above the 40” (June 11, 2021) erupted in the housing-related plays. Big cap tech looks more ready than ever to reestablish its leadership position over the market. The stock market had an initial negative reaction to the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market struggled for months against the downtrend line on market breadth. The struggle ended last week. My favorite technical indicator of breadth AT40 (T2108) broke out and closed the week at 61.9%. Now I start a countdown toward a test of the overbought threshold. However, several sectors dampened the week’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week featured yet another episode of momentary panic proceeded by a virtual “all clear” signal. In the middle of the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) broke down just as the stock market hit extremes. Subsequently, buyers stepped into the breach. As a result, the very next day, the stock market rebounded … Read more