Why Wall Street Wants A Recession

Jerome Powell at the Reservation Economic Summit

That sigh of disappointment was Wall Street looking for signs of a weakening labor market in the June jobs report. Instead, that report showed job creation remains robust in the economy. Not only did the unemployment rate remain steady at a low 3.6% with the economy adding 372,000 jobs (far more than “consensus” expectations), the … Read more

On the Way to Oversold, Fed Faces Test of Resolve – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary: Trading extremes led to a snapback rally as expected. However, the rally was short-lived as bear market action quickly resumed. The stock market looks like it is on the way to oversold trading conditions as March closing lows failed to hold as support. Fear is palpable as traders and investors scramble to … Read more

Canadian Dollar: Central Bank Optimism Gives Currency A Fresh Boost

Currency markets were excited for less than an hour over the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) from the Bank of Canada. Before the dust settled, USD/CAD, the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, reached a near 3-year low. Economic optimism from Canada’s central bank gave the Canadian dollar a fresh boost. Bank of Canada Governor … Read more

Yet Another Timely Lesson from Economic Exuberance

“One-Twenty Two” is a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets. This blog often examines the investing and trading implications of extremes in financial markets. By definition, an extreme condition marks a top or a bottom in prices and invites contrary thinking. For example, the cyclical concepts of “overbought” and “oversold” measure temporary … Read more

Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020 (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change: Housing and utilities: .08% Change in farm inventories: 0.10% Government consumption expenditures … Read more