ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in September, 2024? Existing home sales fell into a deeper downturn while new home sales maintained an uptrend from recent troughs. Rate cuts are helping to bottom out sentiment for builders. However, great anticipation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve gave way … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in August, 2024? Financial markets quickly threw out a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. Hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve continued to impact both the data and stock prices. While the on-going decline in mortgage rates has failed to … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in July, 2024? July started with a major downgrade from Citigroup for the housing sector. The downgrade at the time confirmed the implications of a bust for the spring selling season. My lamentations about the bust seemed confirmed by further deterioration in the housing … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in June, 2024? The broadening weakness I described in my previous Housing Market Review continued and confirmed a spring selling season bust. The data in June delivered a picture of a sales slowdown accompanied by increasing affordability squeezes despite inventory increases. Housing Stocks The … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in May, 2024? Homebuilders suddenly soured on the prospects for the housing market. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out signs of topping and sales headwinds. The data in May delivered a picture of broadening weakness as a follow-through to the warnings … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in April, 2024? After four months of growing more positive, home builders proceeded into the spring selling season thanks to drag from the South. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out a positive start to the spring selling season. April painted a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in March, 2024? Home builders grew more positive and greeted the spring selling season with a resurgence in housing starts. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out breakouts in the stocks of homebuilders and a bottoming in existing home sales. Both developments … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in February, 2024? Breakouts and bottoms happened. In my previous Housing Market Review, I posited the possibility of a top in the seasonal trade on home builders. In the subsequent month, the stocks of home builders took on new life as investors forgot about … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months, the housing market experienced several impacts from declining mortgage rates. An accelerating improvement in consumer and builder sentiment point the path toward a strong spring selling season despite on-going issues of affordability and inventory availability (in the existing home market). While housing starts pulled back from November’s … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Of all the November housing data, housing starts provided the clearest support for the sharp rebound in the stocks of home builders the last two months. In parallel, builder sentiment has likely bottomed in anticipation of the positive impact of falling mortgage rates. On the other hand, existing home sales … Read more