CoT

Forex Critical: Speculators Back Down At A Critical Juncture for the British Pound

When speculators finally flipped bullish on the British pound (FXB), it looked like the action came right as the currency was making a peak against the U.S. dollar (DXY0). The timing of my observation happened to mark the bottom for GBP/USD, and now speculators have backed down from their nascent pound bullishness. They now hold … Read more

As the VIX Plunges to All-Time Lows, Speculators Abort Their Seasonal Gold and Silver Rush

A month ago, I wrote about the near seasonal pattern of speculators accumulating net long contracts in gold and silver from July troughs to October peaks. THIS year, the speculators started up on schedule but aborted the mission as net longs peaked well ahead of October. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders So seasonal patterns … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Flip the Script on the British Pound

Speculators are net bullish on the British pound (FXB) for the first time in almost two years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While the net long position is barely above zero, the flip of the script is still significant given how little time speculators have spent bullish on the pound since at least 2008. … Read more

Iron Ore Pairs Trade Lags Commodity’s Plunge

The market must be expecting an imminent rebound in the price of iron ore. Almost two weeks ago, I proposed a pairs trade going short Rio Tinto (RIO) versus long BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) as a way to play the top in the price of iron ore predicted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Abandon Shorts on the British Pound

In one fell swoop, the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish posturing flushed shorts out of the British pound (FXB). The net short position of speculators has not been this low ever since the latest wave of currency bearishness began against the British pound. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This rapid closure of shorts helps … Read more

A Recharge for the Canadian Dollar Bull

A little over a week ago, I explained why I put the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar (FXC) on shorter leashes. Canada’s extremely strong second quarter GDP report at the end of August just loosened that leash a little. Statistics Canada reported 2Q real GDP growth of 1.1%. The annualized growth rate of 4.5% … Read more

Speculators Add to Expectations for Higher Gold and Silver

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) accomplished a major milestone in the past week: it fully reversed its entire post-election loss in what looks like a major breakout. Source: StockCharts.com Speculators have been rushing back to gold likely in anticipation of these much higher prices. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Since 2008, here are the … Read more

Forex Critical – Key Trends Continuing for the Aussie, Loonie, and Yen

The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) showed some key trends continuing: new heights of bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), and on-going depths of bearishness for the Japanese yen (FXY). Speculators increased net longs on the Australian dollar for the 8th week in a row. Speculators … Read more

Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally

I clearly took profits on my relief rally trade in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While SLV wrestles with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA), the silver ETF sits on top of a 7.3% gain since hitting a 15-month low three weeks ago. Given SLV was able to power through the … Read more

Forex Critical: The Australian Dollar – Too Much, Too Fast

Over two weeks ago I officially ended my bearishness on the Australian dollar (FXA). I made that call just in time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The Australian dollar has powered higher against almost all major currencies and now threatens to retard the economy’s on-going adjustment away from mining investment. The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently noted … Read more