ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
This piece is my second follow-up to my claims from a year ago in: “Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK“. Since that post, and especially this year, the performance gap between the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has widened so much that I am comfortable … Read more
The simple answer is yes! The data show that a worse than average August for the S&P 500 (SPY) increases the likelihood of a worse than average September. I use average to mean the average maximum drawdown as calculated and analyzed in “How to Trade During the Stock Market’s Most Dangerous Months“. In this case, … Read more
Alphabet, Inc (GOOG) was my favorite stock in my generative AI trade. No more. After OpenAI announced SearchGPT, GOOG fell 3.0%. The decline followed a 5.0% post-earnings loss and confirmed a bearish breakdown below the 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below). While SearchGPT is still a prototype, even the idea … Read more
When Jim Cramer gets exorcised about something, I sit up and pay attention. As a student of market extremes, Cramer’s extremes offer their own special trading signals. At the onset of the pandemic, I wrote about “Cramer in turmoil” as a demonstration of how quickly financial narratives can change in response to market extremes, revealing … Read more
This year has been a surprisingly good year for speculating. The race to the end of 2023 looked like it priced in a lot of good news, but the good news (in price action) continues apace year-to-date. Thus, I decided to take a fresh look at last year’s claim: “Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile … Read more
Sometimes it pays to be stubborn. In December, I asked whether Beyond Meat (BYND) would be the speculative trade of the new year. I presented a simple thesis that managed to work out. However, the path from A to B was totally unexpected, and I broke rules along the way. In response to earnings, BYND … Read more
I have a good friend that comes up with interesting theories about relationships in the stock market. Recently, he claimed that “more often than not”, on a day where the big cap stocks gain and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) does not gain, IWM will experience a daily gain on the next trading day. … Read more
Last Friday’s 29% plunge in Opera Limited (OPRA) seized the attention of the company and its “cornerstone shareholder” Kunlun Tech Limited. With the swiftness of a crisis management team, the two combined to sing a sweeter tune for investors. In a follow-up SEC filing, Opera Limited clarified that last week’s announced shelf filing simply replaces … Read more
ChatGPT Speaks I continue to find interesting and valuable ways to use ChatGPT. After listening to a segment on CNBC’s Fast Money that wrangled over the risks in commercial real estate, I decided to ask ChatGPT a topical question: “What publicly traded commercial real estate REITs struggled the most during the great financial crisis?” I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The trade on Generative AI took a surprising turn last week as investors and traders rushed to related names as if they offered safety from the banking Panic of 2023. Some stocks shot straight up for the week. The renewed interest surprised me because I just happened to write about this trade … Read more