ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A month ago, I described the Japanese yen (FXY) as a currency on edge given a sharp and abrupt response to a feared tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). So far, no tightening cycle has launched, but the yen has steadily strengthened over the last month. For example, USD/JPY broke down below support … Read more
“I will be watching for signs of the durability of this latest Bitcoin bottom. If search interest wanes quickly, I will expect the recovery phase to fizzle relatively quickly like last time. If search interest remains robust, I will accordingly expect the recovery period to last longer.” This is what I wrote on January 18, … Read more
I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It’s time to pay closer attention. As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity. The yields of these bonds ticked up … Read more
The Canadian dollar (FXC) is at an interesting juncture. Strong economic data has strengthened the currency but the Bank of Canada (BoC) has applied brakes on currency’s rally. The Canadian dollar weakened in the wake of policy statements in October and December. The last word of 2017 went to the economic data as hot inflation … Read more
The currency market painted a bullish interpretation of the latest monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). By the time of the September quarter GDP report, that incremental bullishness disappeared and setup a bearish interpretation of the Australian economy. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The net result, which includes a U.S. jobs report, is an … Read more
Speculators are net bullish on the British pound (FXB) for the first time in almost two years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While the net long position is barely above zero, the flip of the script is still significant given how little time speculators have spent bullish on the pound since at least 2008. … Read more
The market must be expecting an imminent rebound in the price of iron ore. Almost two weeks ago, I proposed a pairs trade going short Rio Tinto (RIO) versus long BHP Billiton Limited (BHP) as a way to play the top in the price of iron ore predicted by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). … Read more
A little over a week ago, I explained why I put the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar (FXC) on shorter leashes. Canada’s extremely strong second quarter GDP report at the end of August just loosened that leash a little. Statistics Canada reported 2Q real GDP growth of 1.1%. The annualized growth rate of 4.5% … Read more
I clearly took profits on my relief rally trade in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While SLV wrestles with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA), the silver ETF sits on top of a 7.3% gain since hitting a 15-month low three weeks ago. Given SLV was able to power through the … Read more
Over two weeks ago I officially ended my bearishness on the Australian dollar (FXA). I made that call just in time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The Australian dollar has powered higher against almost all major currencies and now threatens to retard the economy’s on-going adjustment away from mining investment. The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently noted … Read more