Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more

Gold and Silver Speculators In Full Retreat

A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more

Above the 40 (July 7, 2017) – Another Entry for Stock Market’s Yo-Yo Chronicles

AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.2 (10.8% drop) (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Source: Giphy There are all sorts of nicknames possible for a churning market. In this edition of “Above … Read more

Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls

Bulls in the Mexican peso successfully reversed all the post-election gains in USD/MXN. Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: The latest CFTC data on … Read more

Gold and Silver Lag A Market Wavering On Two More Rate Hikes for 2017

Market expectations for a June rate hike remain as solid as ever. However, expectations for two more rate hikes in 2017 have wavered. A day ahead of the release of the next decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Fed Fund futures pricing in two rate hikes by December (assuming 25 basis point … Read more

Speculators In the Mexican Peso Last Did This At Oil’s 2014 Peak

On April 17, 2017, speculators turned bullish on the Mexican peso for the first time in 2 years. That point 2 years ago was a brief 1-week relief from on-going bearishness against the peso. The latest data on net non-commercial positions (speculators) show that the nascent bullishness in the peso carried over into a second … Read more

Above the 40 (April 26, 2017) – A Stretched Stock Market Loses Bid for Overbought Status

AT40 = 68.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 65.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), pushed into overbought territory today with … Read more

An Important Breakout and Vindication for Silver Speculators

Last week, I noted that silver speculators returned to “maximum bullishness” but warned… “Just like the plunge on March 2nd, the key for SLV is the follow-through. On March 3rd, a small relief rally fell short of 200DMA resistance; two days later SLV gapped down on its way to a 50DMA breakdown. I am guessing … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Hold Positions Even As Backdrops Shift

In my last posts on the euro (FXE), the Canadian dollar (FXC), and the British pound (FXB), I noted significant trading moves by speculators in foreign exchange as reported by the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (CoT). The latest CFTC CoT report shows more of the same for these currencies but the backdrops may be shifting … Read more

Above the 40 (March 24, 2017) – Small Caps Fight for the Bulls, Euro Presses Higher

AT40 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last “Above the 40“, I noted how the stock market took a pause in deference to the growing … Read more