ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
The referendum that punted the UK out of the European Union (EU), “Brexit”, is practically a forgotten memory for most people outside of Europe. For example, the aftermath of this vote now looks like an event that quickly shook out the most eager sellers in the stock market and thus paved a course for a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 13, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) And so ends the flurry of sentiment on Brexit. The Google Trends chart makes “Brexit” look like a big anxiety bubble. While sentiment has calmed down, the British pound (FXB) is … Read more
The vote by the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU), aka Brexit, kicked off a series of market events that collectively seem very surreal. First, there was the global rally in financial markets going into the vote. Relieved market participants appeared to anticipate a victory by the Remain side. Next came two … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The Bank of England (BoE) released its latest pronouncement on monetary policy on April 14, 2016. As has been the case for what feels like forever now, the BoE kept policy the same with Bank rate at 0.5%, and it maintained the stock of purchased assets at £375 billion. The BoE concluded that the outlook … Read more
What a difference 19 months make. It was June, 2014 when Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney confidently warned financial markets that rate hikes could come earlier than implied at that time by the market. Less than a month later, the British pound (FXB) (or sterling) peaked against the U.S. dollar (DXY0). Peaks against … Read more
This past week was an important one for monetary policy. The Bank of England (BoE) made clear it is willing to put off rate hikes as long as necessary. Despite its words that suggest otherwise, the Bank is NOT biased for action. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear that, all else being … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 24, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} After reading the actual speech by Andrew Haldane, titled ominously “How low can you go?,” I realized that the BBC had overly focused Haldane’s concluding remarks. I can understand the … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As every other major central bank has done, the Federal Reserve has taken a crack at estimating the economic impact of the collapse in oil prices. In its semi-annual report to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “Historically low levels of interest rates globally and the current backdrop of low volatility across financial markets may encourage market participants to underestimate the likelihood and severity of tail risks. There … Read more