Stevens Passes On Jawboning the Australian Dollar and Sticks to A Familiar Script

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar (FXA) has been incredibly resilient in recent weeks. Weak economic data from China and concerns about excessive debt in the Chinese economy have barely dented the recent momentum. … Read more

It Had to Happen – An Outright Call for Iron Ore Collusion

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 26, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The response was swift. The The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) released a statement indicating it will investigate the context and nature of comments made by Andrew Forrest, founder … Read more

More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar’s Multi-Year Weakness Fails to Curb Trade Deficit

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A drop in the Australian dollar (FXA) toward a fresh six-year low has not stopped Australia’s trade balance from worsening. {snip} Source: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Source for currency … Read more

Surprising Divergences Tugging At the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Over the weekend another wave of rumors about plans for economic stimulus in China made the rounds. These rumors were credited for helping to drive China’s Shanghai index toward a 7-year … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Slows the Momentum for Rate Cuts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) This time around, the currency market seemed well-prepared for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). As luck would have it, the RBA did not cooperate. {snip} This … Read more

A Weekend Rate Cut In China Fails to Stir the Australian Dollar; RBA Now On Tap

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points). Yet, as of the open of Asian trading, the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more

Australia’s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its December, 2014 data on housing finance in Australia. The data show that first-time home buyers continue to decline as a percentage of all dwellings … Read more

The Commodity Crash Playbook: A Long Overdue Rewrite and Revision

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three and a half years ago, I started a series that I called “the Commodities Crash Playbook” in an effort to take advantage of an investing and economic theory promoted by … Read more

Parabolic Moves in the Ruble, Turkish Lira May Foreshadow the Same for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Currency markets have been rocked with increasingly extreme moves in risk-bearing currencies like the Russian ruble (USD/RUB). Last week, the Russian central bank hiked interest rates from 9.5% to 10.5%. This … Read more

A Minor Intervention Scare for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On November 13th (in the morning in Australia), Christopher Kent, an Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), delivered a speech discussing business cycles in Australia. The big news … Read more