ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Investor psychology took an important hit this week. During the Goldman Sachs (GS) Q&A period for the Q4 2021 earnings conference call, Chairman and CEO David Solomon dropped an inflation bomb. Solomon claimed that “there is real wage inflation everywhere in the economy, everywhere” (from the Seeking Alpha transcript). Solomon responded to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market survived a choppy week. The churn almost looked like stabilization after a disappointing start to the new year. However, the attempt to absorb the news of a hawkish Fed is taking its toll in the form of toppiness. With each passing day I get more and more wary about … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The strong end to 2021 mattered for just one day so far in 2022. Presumably fresh passive investments helped create a broad surge on the first day of the year. Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting changed everything. Apparently, the Fed talk sounded a lot more hawkish … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The rebound from oversold conditions leading into Christmas provided just enough fuel for a one day Santa Claus rally. After the week started with a rush for Santa, the excitement fizzled like kids opening their last Christmas gifts. Still, the rally was enough and ended 2021 on a strong note. The S&P … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After the Grinch roasted Santa on an oversold fire, I expected a bounce with lots of churn into the holiday season. The bounce arrived right on schedule, but buyers had no patience for churn. The stock market look inspired by Santa’s revenge as a sharp oversold rally launched a broad swath of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary According to Investopedia, the Santa Claus rally “describes a sustained increase in the stock market that occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January.” With the legendary rally still a week away, the S&P 500 (SPY) finds itself priced exactly where it was at the end … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market wilted toward oversold territory ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncements on monetary policy. However, the relief from hearing exactly what everyone expected was so large that the S&P 500 (SPY) gained 1.6% and almost hit a new all-time high. The move fooled a lot of people (see below). … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The post-oversold divergence resolved to the downside. The downward pressure was evident across a wide swath of stocks, and big cap stocks were only strong enough to keep the S&P 500 (SPY) aloft for a day (at an all-time high). Now, the stock market looks toppy and heavy enough to dip back … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s dip into oversold territory lasted the typical one day. The immediate wake was ugly. The follow-through revealed a new divergence. The resulting oversold bounce carved out the S&P 500 for special status as the winner of the divergence. The index hit an all-time high while the majority of the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The November jobs report suggested that the employment rate fell to levels last seen before the pandemic. However, the 210,000 additional jobs is well below the 1,000,000 additional jobs estimated by the U.S. household survey. This great divergence is a good metaphor for the uncertainty causing sharp and wide gyrations in the … Read more