ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
AT40 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The cats were particularly frenetic in the last week of trading for the second quarter of 2017. The major … Read more
AT40 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I noted how the trading action made it hard for me to … Read more
I am surprised Fed futures traders still firmly expect a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve in June. Source: CME FedWatch Tool After the stock market sell-off in the wake of more Trump turmoil, the market pegged the odds of a June rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve at 64.6%. Above 50% means … Read more
Ahead of the May decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, I concluded that the stars had aligned for a potential (sharp) relief rally for the SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). In that post, I extrapolated from the market’s waning enthusiasm for two more rate hikes in 2017. … Read more
Market expectations for a June rate hike remain as solid as ever. However, expectations for two more rate hikes in 2017 have wavered. A day ahead of the release of the next decision on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, Fed Fund futures pricing in two rate hikes by December (assuming 25 basis point … Read more
AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more
AT40 = 47.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its interest rate as expected by 0.25%. The accompanying statement was remarkable only for being … Read more
Last week I registered my surprise at silver speculators rushing to increase net long contracts to near multi-year highs. This move happened ahead of what was expected to be a parade of Fed-speak clearing the path for a March rate hike. The surge stood out even more given gold’s surge did not bring net long … Read more
AT40 = 58.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary And this is why I appreciate hedging…and using Caterpillar (CAT) as my most common hedge was particularly fortuitous today. On … Read more
AT40 Status: 64.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Two days ago, I titled my Above the 40 update “The S&P 500 Coiled In Anticipation.” I described the building … Read more