Forex Setup Week (August 31, 2014) – Critical Test of QE2 Resistance for the U.S. Dollar

Ten days ago, I thought the U.S. dollar (UUP) was over-extended and due for a correction. A cooling never happened. Instead, the dollar index continued climbing the upward trending channel between the first and second Bollinger Bands (BBs). Now, the dollar index faces an even more critical test: the presumed ceiling of a trading range … Read more

An Over-Extended U.S. Dollar and A Complete Reversal for Gold

The U.S. dollar (UUP) is at 11-month highs. The dollar index is finally showing the strength many expected from the beginning of 2014 in anticipation of strong economic numbers and subsequent rate hikes. The chart above shows that the U.S. dollar index has been on a relative tear since bouncing off its QE3 reference price … Read more

A Subtle Change In Tone As the U.S. Dollar Achieves Year-to-Date Highs

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar index (UUP) has increased steadily all of July. The dollar index has gained 2% month-to-date. This matches a similar gain from the dollar’s last low in early May … Read more

Exactly Nowhere for the U.S. Dollar Year-To-Date Hides Some Subtle Signals

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So far, 2014 has included more angst about emerging markets, a large (and temporary) spike on volatility, a sharp rally in bond prices, and an impressive (counter-trend) rally in gold. Through … Read more

Over-Reaction to Yellen Rate “Guidance” Helps Drive Fresh Breakout for the U.S. Dollar Against the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This is from Janet Yellen’s first Federal Reserve press conference as Fed Chair (starting around the 37:00 mark). Yellen answered a question from a reporter from Reuters on when rates … Read more