ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Cocoa prices have plunged along with the pandemic-driven crash in global financial markets. The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB) reached a closing peak on February 13th just ahead of the global pandemic crisis. Since then, NIB is down 23.8%, a bear market in cocoa. Per my buy-the-dip strategy in NIB, this is … Read more
AT40 = 4.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (28th oversold day)AT200 = 5.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 46.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary First, another dose of hope and a light reminder of the seriousness of … Read more
AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (8th oversold day)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom barely held as support last week. It was a week of dramatic ups and downs … Read more
AT40 = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.7Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary It just got tougher to stick to my recent bearish short-term trading call on the stock market. On Friday, news went … Read more
Overall Assessment I am neutral on M/I Homes (MHO) which means I am content to stay on the sidelines until a fresh catalyst pushes me off the fence. The Q4 earnings report for M/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it … Read more
AT40 = 56.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary It appears China and the U.S. finally agreed on a Partial, Phase One Trade Deal. The bare bones basics on the deal consist … Read more
My now wavering bullish case for the Canadian dollar (FXC) took a major hit with the November, 2019 Labour Force Survey. Statistics Canada reported worsening unemployment rates both sequentially and year-over-year. November’s 5.9% unemployment rate was an increase from October’s 5.5% and the 5.6% in November, 2018. The chart below suggests an end to the … Read more
The Stock Performance Roku (ROKU) is up an eye-popping 402% in 2019 year-to-date. ROKU surged off a 13-month low in December, 2018, and the run-up included three straight very positive post-earnings surges. The stock hit its closing all-time high at a stratospheric $169.86 on September 6, 2019. Soon after that milestone, competitive news from Apple … Read more
AT40 = 59.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 13.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution Seems about right. Just as I switch from a (cautiously) bearish stance to neutral, the stock market throws more definitively … Read more
AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below) Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution I still harbor lingering skepticism, but the S&P 500’s recovery from the last hiccup and its subsequent slow … Read more