ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. dollar index touched its 200-day moving average with the kind of precision only a technician can love. *Chart created using TeleChart: I keep waiting for (and betting on) the dollar to get a nice relief bounce against the yen, but the dollar’s near straight-line descent has been the main story. While I wait … Read more
For many of us, investing over the last 10 years has been much more difficult and a lot less fun than it was in the 90s. In the 90s, it was easy to accept the religion of “buy and hold”, keep the faith that assets are pre-ordained to increase in value, and drown oneself in … Read more
On Tuesday, Research In Motion’s (RIMM’s) stock plunged over 4% on notable volume. It appeared that a 4-month downtrend was ready to resume. That evening, RIMM announced a mysterious event, presumably with AT&T, for the following Tuesday. Always quick to buy a rumor, the market responded to the hype by sending RIMM to a rapid … Read more
Earlier, I noted that Intel’s stock looked ominous given so many stocks were making bullish post-earnings reversals. On Friday, Intel (INTC) finally gave up the rest of its impressive post-earnings gains. On a day in which the market staged a relatively impressive comeback from initial selling (the NASDAQ closed marginally UP), INTC closed on its … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. Unlike the last two rounds, I have no strong feelings about the potential upward or downward moves this time around. I went neutral on FSLR after closing out positions on the great post-earnings pop in April, and I have not done much else since then with the stock … Read more
July will deliver an up month for Goldman Sachs (GS) for the first time since March and only the third time since it peaked nine months ago. GS is up 12% for the month of July, handily beating the 7% gain for the S&P 500 and and the 6% gain for XLF, the SPDRs Select … Read more
The British pound’s bounce from May’s 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar has surpassed all my expectations. The currency has stumbled at key resistance points as expected, but the trend upward has been persistent and undeniable. The pound has followed a steep channel straight up. The pound is now sitting right at its 200-day moving … Read more
Momentum continues to swing swiftly in favor of the bulls. The stock market is now pushing deep into overbought territory just three weeks after it was fashionable again to talk about a double dip recession. Last week, the S&P 500 broke a downtrend I assumed would hold for at least a few more weeks. It … Read more
With tongue reaching for the cheek last week, I declared the market both extremely undervalued and very overvalued, guessing that “as earnings season grinds on, I suspect the near-predictable pattern of post-earnings fades will finally wear thin, giving way to more bullish behavior.” I did not expect the turn to happen so clearly and dramatically … Read more
I spoke a day to soon on the bearish downtrend on XLI, the SPDRs Select Sector Industrial ETF. A healthy 3% one-day gain sent the ETF hurtling over resistance and into breakout territory. The next line of resistance is the June high or the “left shoulder” formed in late May/early June, depending on your perspective. … Read more