Trading Cocoa: Buffeted by Weather But Staying the Course

Trading for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) could have started quite negatively this week. Yesterday, On May 29th, Bloomberg reported from unnamed sources that Ghana’s main crop for the cocoa growing season would produce its highest tonnage in three years: “Graded and sealed deliveries from the so-called main crop, the larger of two … Read more

Housing Market Review – A Strong and Optimistic Market Awaits the Next Fed Meeting (May, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in April, 2017 for March, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the high end of almost two months of churn which included a new 10-year high. ITB has not hit “escape velocity” from its price where the U.S. Federal Reserve last … Read more

Above the 40 (May 26, 2017) – The S&P 500 Hits More All-Time Highs Floating On Pillows of Caution

AT40 = 47.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I should no longer be amazed, but I am still amazed: the inability of sellers to generate follow-through in … Read more

Trading Cocoa: A Roller Coaster of Weather and Forecasts of Surplus

The downtrend for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) won out yet again. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The buyers looked particularly convincing for NIB’s latest 50DMA breakout. Yet, a 1-2 punch of a return of good weather results in Ivory Coast and a particularly aggressive crop production forecast from Rabobank killed the latest rally for NIB. … Read more

Trading Cocoa: Poor Weather and Cartel Plans Drive Bids for Another Bottom

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 10, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I first identified a potential bottom for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), I did not envision the volatile process that has since unfolded. I particularly did not anticipate … Read more