ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Lender Processing Services (LPS) provides “…mortgage processing services, settlement services, mortgage performance analytics and default solutions.” The company claims that “a majority of the 50 largest U.S. banks” use its services. This business has put LPS right at the epicenter of “foreclosuregate.” On September 30, immediately before the foreclosure scandal engulfed LPS, the stock experienced … Read more
For the past few months, I pestered my youngest brother to write a review of his cogent 2009 analysis of the housing market. In that post, he predicted housing would bottom in April, 2010 and as late as 2013 in a worst case scenario. He has finally produced the follow-up, and I post it below. … Read more
As fears mount that the United States is dipping into a double-dip recession and headed down the road of deflationary Japan, Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke tip-toed, tap-danced, and downright side-stepped these landmines during his testimony to the Senate today. The market still did not like what it heard, sold off nearly the instant the Semiannual … Read more
Many homebuilder stocks, like Toll Brothers (TOL), went parabolic in April. The homebuilder index, XHB, hit 18-month highs at the time. Since flaming out, TOL is down 26%, and the homebuilder’s ETF, XHB, has sunk 23% in two months. This action further confirms the principle that parabolic moves more than likely signal the coming end … Read more
Toll Brothers (TOL) has disappointed market participants with its earnings reports over the past 12 months. For example, December’s earnings generated a one-day drop over 7% that finished eliminating a strong gap up in response to November’s preliminary report. However, February’s earnings barely generated a yawn. A week later, the stock resumed an uptrend that … Read more
PBS Newshour aired a segment on Tuesday’s show called “Mortgage Defaults” as part of its “Making Sense” financial series (click here for video, segment aired 25:45 to 35:00). I highly recommend that anyone interested in real estate watch this segment. Newshour picked three example Floridians who are dealing with defaults on their mortgages: A restaurant … Read more
(repost from January 4, 2010) Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta, Georgia. In his speech titled “Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble,” Bernanke presented statistical (econometric) analyses to demonstrate that monetary policy contributed very little to the recent housing bubble in the U.S. … Read more
For Toll Brothers (TOL), history has a nasty habit of repeating itself. Over the last two quarters, TOL released preliminary earnings reports that propelled the stock to one-day double-digit gains on record trading volumes. For the second time in a row, the actual earnings report generated the exact opposite response. After the last earnings report, … Read more
For the second straight quarter, Toll Brothers (TOL) provided a preliminary quarterly report that ignited the stock as sales volumes once again surpassed expectations. Robert I. Toll, chairman and CEO, explains: “Our fourth-quarter unit deliveries exceeded the high end of our range of guidance due to the delivery of a higher percentage of our backlog, … Read more
The Washington Post issued an alarming article today titled “Housing Agency’s Cash Reserves Will Drop Below Requirement.” In what seems like yet another case of “here we go again,” Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Commissioner David H. Stevens tells us not to worry about his agency’s dwindling reserves even as mortgage delinquencies rise. The Post explains … Read more