Correlations Are Broken But Australian Dollar Still Leads The S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar…{snip}…has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) for much of the last six years and more. The correlation has broken down at critical moments, the most interesting … Read more

As Gold and Silver Reawaken, It Is Time to Buy Cheap Miners like Pan American Silver

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 21, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Gold and silver have languished since reaching their last peaks in 2011. {snip} Last week, gold and silver reawakened and made sharp reversals. {snip} Note that the dollar’s resurgence since hitting … Read more

T2108 Update (May 23, 2012) – Oversold Period Ends While Risks Remain High

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 22.5% (Last oversold period … Read more

Chart Review: The Pound Continues to Break Down

The pound continues to flunk the test of a safe haven currency. Both the yen and the U.S. dollar have been soundly beating out the currency for the entire month of May – for example, CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling Trust (FXB). Those beatings have accelerated along with the worsening crisis in the eurozone. The chart … Read more

Step Aside British Pound, The Japanese Yen Is Back As the Safety Currency Of Choice

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written about my skepticism regarding the British pound’s newly found “safe haven” status (for example, see “Hard Currency: My Reactions To The Financial Times’ Promising Podcast“). During my last … Read more

T2108 Update (May 17, 2012) – Oversold and Looking UGLY Ahead of Facebook IPO

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 18.9% (Oversold day #1, … Read more

Hard Currency: A Promising Podcast on Foreign Exchange From the Financial Times

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Financial Times has launched a new weekly podcast called “Hard Currency.” The first interview aired on May 13th featuring Alice Ross as host and senior currency analyst Paul Robson from … Read more

It’s Official – The RBA Is Working the Australian Dollar Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It’s official – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying to work the Australian dollar lower. In a surprise move, the RBA cut rates 50 basis points to 3.75%. Expectations … Read more

Australian Dollar Holds Firm Ahead Of A Likely Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my reasons for recently turning bearish on the Australian dollar (FXA) is what I see as the likelihood of additional rate cuts through the year. It seems the consensus … Read more