The Reserve Bank of Australia Sets the Stage for the Next Rate Cut(s)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its November decision for monetary policy with a very familiar template. The most important part of the statement came at the end where the RBA made it clear rate cuts are on its collective mind (emphasis mine): “At today’s meeting the Board judged that the prospects for an … Read more

T2108 Update (October 30, 2015) – Post-Fed Momentum Quickly Stalls, Underlying Momentum Fades

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

U.S. Dollar Stalls Even As Odds For January Rate Hike Firm

The market wasted no time. Within two days, currency markets reversed all the losses the euro (FXE) suffered in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s October decision on monetary policy. In that decision, the Fed cleverly crafted words to convince the market that its first rate hike is indeed imminent. With renewed signs of strength … Read more

The Australian Dollar Should Face Increased Pressure from Policy Divergence

Australia’s persistently weak inflation data has now convinced the market that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is much more likely than not to cut interest rates at its November 3, 2015 meeting on monetary policy. Source: The ASX RBA Rate Indicator Combine this flip in market sentiment with the mirror image of the market … Read more

Financial Markets Welcome the Fed’s Focus On Its First Rate Hike With Important Breakouts

The U.S. Federal Reserve released its latest decision on monetary policy and left interest rates unchanged. There was of course no surprise there. However, the very mention of a future rate hike was treated like new news: Fed holds rates near zero, but signals possible hike "at its next meeting" https://t.co/vF4pOxlo9p — WSJ Breaking News … Read more