ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings tonight, and short interest is at a record high. Data from nasdaq.com. Latest update January 29, 2010 This short interest represents about 36% of FSLR’s float. Toss in negative news flow and for the first time in a long time, negativity is running extremely high going into FSLR’s earnings. As … Read more
At the end of December, I suggested that the post-earnings trading in U.S. Steel (X) and Nucor (NUE) would be explosive based upon stealth rallies from the November lows that occurred despite a strong accumulation in puts and shorts on those stocks. On Tuesday, both steel companies delivered disappointing earnings that included cautions regarding continued … Read more
In my last piece on Google (GOOG), I neglected to post an update to my chart on the company’s revenue metrics using the 2009 fourth quarter earnings report. The chart below shows that revenue per employee has now returned to the highs at the beginning of GOOG’s existence as a public company. Assuming that net … Read more
Google (GOOG) fourth quarter earnings last night were largely as expected: “Google reported revenues of $6.67 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, an increase of 17% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008…GAAP EPS in the fourth quarter of 2009 was $6.13…compared to $1.21 in the fourth quarter of 2008…Non-GAAP EPS in the … Read more
Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more
The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October’s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night’s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior … Read more
Google (GOOG) is now down 5% for the year, under-performing the NASDAQ which is essentially flat for 2010. The sudden surge in volume in GOOG suggests that a large group of traders and investors are selling on the news of the Nexus One release. This volume represents the most active trading in GOOG since its … Read more
I am always on the hunt for trading opportunities in solar stocks. For a third time, ReneSola (SOL) appears to be a long opportunity. My previous two attempts failed as I bought calls instead of shares. Purchasing shares instead of calls would have left me flat at this point. I am looking for a charmed … Read more
While unemployment seems to have crested, the outlook for jobs growth is as dark as ever. Cintas (CTAS), a maker of work uniforms, reported disappointing earnings yesterday evening and provided a dour outlook on the jobs market: “We anticipate that when job recovery does occur, it will be a slow and lengthy process. In addition, … Read more
Today, Google (GOOG) closed above $600 for the first time since January, 2008. This milestone places the stock right at the minimum price target I estimated for the GOOG post-earnings trade. With a month remaining before January options expiration and the stock market stuck on “cruise control” for now, I believe I have much more … Read more