The United States Oil Fund Flirts With A Breakdown

A little over two weeks ago I generated some simple trading scenarios for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). The scenarios depended upon well-behaved volatility for oil, the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX). OVX is now on the edge of breaking out above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move was led … Read more

How to Trade the Change In Narrative and Momentum for Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my tenets from the (revised) “Commodity Crash Playbook” is to respect momentum and trends in commodity trading and investing… {snip} Iron ore has become a fascinating case in point. … Read more

Oil’s Declining Volatility Delivers for the Big USO Trade Ahead Of OPEC’s June Meeting

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 1, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) meets this week on June 5th in a much different price environment for oil than the November, 2014 meeting. {snip} Sources: US. Energy … Read more

An Extended Forecast for A Stronger Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its September, 2014 quarterly report on Australia’s resources and energy sectors and analysis of key commodity markets. Each report includes forecasts … Read more

Bad Signs: The Australian Dollar Trips As Iron Ore Stumbles Over $100

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The miners of iron ore spent the last few years ramping up production capacity, and now they are ramping up production. The price of iron ore has steadily fallen in 2014 … Read more