The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

Using the QE2 Reference Price To Buy Freeport-McMoRan

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 10, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip}…I want to demonstrate how well last year’s playbook has worked for Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) (so far!). One of the rules from the playbook states: “QE2 (the second … Read more

Little New News from Jackson Hole But Market Readies for Action Anyway

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) “…the private sector’s revised outlook for the policy rate also appears to reflect a growing appreciation of how forceful the FOMC intends to be in supporting a sustainable recovery.” (Ben Bernanke … Read more

Pan American Silver Remains A Cheap Play On A Recovery In Silver Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} {snip} First, why bother with a silver miner that is experiencing operational difficulties due to political turmoil? I think the company’s description of itself provides a good summary of the … Read more

By Closing Above Its “QE2 Reference Price”, Dollar Increases Pressure On Fed

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I did not think it would happen, but the dollar index finally closed above its “QE2 reference price.” {snip} I have contended that if the dollar index reached current levels, the … Read more

Even After More Insider Buying, Molycorp Struggles To Generate Upward Momentum

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 9, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a month ago, John C. Ashburn, Executive Vice President & General Counsel of Molycorp (MCP) purchased $101,300 worth of MCP stock. This purchased converted him from an insider seller during … Read more

The Dollar’s Tumble Accompanies A Host of Critical Currency and Commodity Trades

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thanks largely to the surging euro, the U.S. dollar index (UUP) took one of its nastiest one-day tumbles since last October, falling 1.3%. I believe this drop all but confirms staunch … Read more

San Juan Basin’s Plunge to Historic Lows Looks Like An Opportunity for the Patient

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In several past pieces on natural gas this year (for example, “Exports Of Liquefied Natural Gas Add To Evidence Of Bottoming Natural Gas Prices“), I have offered San Juan Basin Royalty … Read more

Lessons From the Successful Trade on Joy Global’s Earnings: The Importance of Context

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Tuesday, May 29, I described a trade on Joy Global (JOY) earnings featuring a bullish bias with a hedge. {snip} JOY ended up disappointing investors… {snip}… Investors and traders clearly … Read more

Play Joy Global Earnings For Upside…With A Hedge

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} JOY reports earnings on the morning of May 31st with its stock struggling to stay above 2011 lows. The weekly chart shows how for a second time JOY has lost … Read more