ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more
Introduction I recorded a quick video to summarize my thoughts on today’s flip from bearish to bullish sentiment thanks to a bad news is good news kind of day. You can watch the video or read the transcript below curated, corrected, and organized by ChatGPT4 and then edited further by me. I am using this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more
Almost a year ago, I claimed that investing in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was little different than speculating on initial public offerings in the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO). I was both right and wrong. On the way down, IPO far out-performed ARKK in 2021 and 2022. However, ARKK has benefited more than IPO in this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks may have begun. In a list of debt ceiling winners and losers, Vox failed to list the stock market as one of the biggest winners. The lingering and residual angst accompanying the manufactured drama of the debt ceiling released its hold on the market’s bias to go … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The no worries stock market is sleepwalking its way through April. The major indices are stuck in tight ranges near or at key technical resistance and support levels. Yet, market breadth remains relatively low as many of the big market leaders hold up the tent. Meandering economic data induces some of this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Yes. The stock market can be both complacent and oversold. A week ago I described how stocks left regional banks behind. Last week, the overall market took comfort in the on-going, yet narrowing, strength in big cap tech stocks even as industrials and other economically sensitive stocks stumbled into weakness. The resulting … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market has swung so much between hope and despair that it looks like a dog chasing its tail down a hill. Accordingly, “The Market Breadth” has careened from soaring headlines to danger signs. A steep downtrend has remained in place since the last peak in August. Since that time 200-day … Read more