The Apple Pre-Earnings Trade: July, 2014 Edition

It is earnings time for Apple (AAPL). Expectations are undoubtedly high after April’s huge post-earnings surge – the 8.2% one-day gain is, since 2007, second only to the 8.9% gain in April, 2012. The subsequent run-up certainly has me thinking AAPL has confirmed my expectations for eventual all-time highs. It is now time to temper … Read more

T2108 Update (July 18, 2014) – S&P 500 Snap Back Preserves Important Bullish Trend and Support

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (July 17, 2014) – A Bullish Trend Suddenly Hanging By A Thread

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Some Chart Reviews Before Earnings Potentially Change Everything: RAX, MLNX, DBA, JJA, KBH, BBY, IBM, VLO

Technical analysis becomes particularly precarious during earnings season, but there are some intriguing charts I felt compelled to post anyway. Some telling and strong stories here… Rackspace Hosting, Inc. (RAX) RAX has given back all its gains from the initial excitement over the potential for “strategic alternatives.” Bears have added insult to injury by rushing … Read more

T2108 Update (July 14, 2014) – Bear Whiplash

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Federal Reserve’s Latest Policy Decision Frustrates Bears and Central Banks Alike

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “There is no mechanical formula.” This is the response Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave to a reporter who tried to press her on the rules and timing for the first … Read more

A June UK Manufacturing PMI Full of Superlatives Suggests Rate Hikes This Year

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The British pound (FXB) responded so strongly to the June Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI® report that I decided to read it and go beyond the headlines. I found a report full … Read more

A Stubbornly Strong Australian Dollar Introduces A Risk Factor into Economic Forecasts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its Resources and Energy quarterly for the June, 2014 quarter containing a notably more cautious tone toward the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more

Plunge In Australia’s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia’s trade balance. On … Read more

Glenn Stevens Takes Direct Aim At Market Complacency On the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Governor Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finally returned to jawboning as a method for cajoling currency traders to sell the Australian dollar (FXA). On July 3rd, … Read more