ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market for June, 2025? The spring housing market slipped further, reinforcing a trend of deepening weakness. Inventories continued to surge while both prices and mortgage rates remained elevated. Builders are pulling back, permits are declining, and buyer demand is soft. The housing market’s deteriorating momentum … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market last week was full of a nervous calm. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to muffle the market’s mood after warning that meaningful inflation is yet to come as a result of tariffs. The expiration of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs looms over the market with just one major … Read more
Drawdowns are an important part of trading and investing. For example, risk management is all about surviving drawdowns that could prevent you from receiving the rewards on the other side. In “How to Trade During the Stock Market’s Most Dangerous Months,” I use median and average maximum drawdowns as a measure of seasonal risks in … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s fearless streak met fresh geopolitical headwinds that significantly raised the risk quotient. Tensions surged as Israel bombarded Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and Iran retaliated, spiking oil prices and triggering a market sell-off that, while sharp, could have and should have been a lot worse. This fresh market risk is a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In just three months, the stock market has transformed from fragile to fearless. Friday’s return to overbought territory, on the heels of another jobs report that beat “consensus expectations”, underlined the market’s fearless bullishness. The jobs report made imminent rate cuts even less likely. Along with that prospect, bond yields nudged higher … Read more